[Correspondence] The need for metabolic health stratification in global obesity forecasts

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Source: The Lancet

Original: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(25)01234-6/fullt...

Published: 2025-12-20

The GBD 2021 Adult BMI Collaborators examined global, regional, and national trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in adults (25+ years) from 1990–2021 and projected them to 2050, assuming a continuation of historical trends[1]. In 2021, approximately 1.00 billion (95% CI 0.989–1.01) adult men and 1.11 billion (1.10–1.12) adult women were overweight or obese[1]. If historical trends continue, by 2050 the number of overweight or obese adults is expected to reach 3.80 billion (95% CI 3.39–4.04), more than half of the projected global adult population at that time[1]. A significant increase is predicted in sub-Saharan Africa, where the number of overweight and obese individuals is projected to increase by 254.8% (95% CI 234.4–269.5) between 2021 and 2050[1]. Specifically, in Nigeria, the number of overweight and obese adults is expected to increase to 141 million (121–162) by 2050, making the country the fourth most affected country[1][2]. The authors report that no country has yet halted the rising rates of overweight and obesity, and without immediate and effective interventions, this trend is expected to continue, with the largest increase in absolute numbers driven by population growth in Asia and Africa[1][2].